Emerging Markets Daily - January 7
S. Africa Study Points to End of Pandemic, Kazakhstan's Heavy Crackdown, Inflation Haunts EM: Ziemba, Toyota's Big Year in China, Dubai Airport Still Busiest Intn'l Hub
The Top 5 Stories Shaping Emerging Markets from Global Media - January 7
South Africa Study Raises Hopes that Pandemic May Be Nearing End
“…the researchers who analyzed data at the Steve Biko Academic Hospital in Pretoria said, could be an indication that the pandemic is coming to an end. Data from South Africa, the first country to have a major omicron outbreak, is being closely watched to see how infections from the variant may pan out globally.”
Bloomberg
“A study of patients infected with Covid-19 at a large hospital in the South African city where the first outbreak of the omicron variant was recorded showed an infection wave that moved with ‘unprecedented speed’ and caused much milder illness than earlier strains.”
“That, the researchers who analyzed data at the Steve Biko Academic Hospital in Pretoria said, could be an indication that the pandemic is coming to an end. Data from South Africa, the first country to have a major omicron outbreak, is being closely watched to see how infections from the variant may pan out globally.”
“‘If this pattern continues and is repeated globally, we are likely to see a complete decoupling of case and death rates,’ the researchers said. That suggests ‘omicron may be a harbinger of the end of the epidemic phase of the Covid pandemic, ushering in its endemic phase.’”
“The study showed that just 4.5% of patients with Covid-19 died during their stay in the current wave compared with 21% in earlier waves, a statement on the website of the South African Medical Research Council showed. Fewer people were admitted to intensive-care units and hospital stays were ‘significantly shorter.’” Bloomberg reports.
Kazakh President Announces ‘Shoot-to-Kill’ Order to Crush Protests
Financial Times
“Kazakhstan’s president said on Friday that he had ordered security forces to ‘shoot to kill without warning’, after days of protests in the former Soviet country left government buildings destroyed and dozens dead.”
“In a televised broadcast to the nation, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev depicted the unrest, which began with demonstrations last weekend over a rise in fuel prices, as a co-ordinated attack by a 20,000-strong army of bandits rather than a spontaneous protest.”
“However, he said that order had now largely been restored following a ‘counter-terrorism operation’ backed by Russian forces. ‘Those who do not surrender will be eliminated,’ Tokayev said. ‘Law enforcement and the army have been given the order by me to shoot to kill without warning.’”
“His speech marked an aggressive shift after earlier attempts to appease protesters failed to quell the increasingly politicised disorder. At least 26 protesters and 18 police officers have so far been killed in the violence, according to Kazakh officials, with more than 3,700 people arrested, Interfax cited Kazakh state television as saying.”
“Tokayev accused the ‘so-called free media’ of inciting unlawful activity and lambasted “‘o-called human rights defenders’. ‘All of these irresponsible demagogues became participants . . . and we will react severely to all acts of vandalism against the law,’ he said. The street protests, the country’s worst since independence in 1991, began over a near-doubling of prices for a type of vehicle fuel but escalated quickly in a reflection of broader discontent.” The FT reports.
Inflation Haunts Emerging Markets, Posing Stability Concerns: Ziemba
CNBC
“Rising food and fuel prices pose serious challenges for emerging market countries, according to one economics risk analyst, who pointed to the current mass protests in Kazakhstan that were sparked by fuel hikes.”
“‘A lot of countries are facing a challenge of rising food and fuel prices, particularly, since it is also dovetailing with supply chain restrictions and a variety of other issues,’ said Rachel Ziemba, founder of Ziemba Insights, a research firm. ‘The challenge is that a number of emerging markets that are already struggling to grow even before the pandemic and throughout it… you’re seeing fiscal tightening and monetary tightening at the same time,’ she told CNBC’s Squawk Box Asia on Friday.”
“As a result, countries in the region are struggling on how to distribute their wealth, Ziemba noted. This is especially true for a major energy producer like Kazakhstan. ‘Even for [a] country like Kazakhstan, that’s a commodity exporter… they really have struggled to distribute some of that income,’ Ziemba explained.”
“Ziemba underlined that Kazakhstan, is one of a number of oil producing countries that had been reluctant until recently to pass on higher prices to their population. But the ‘way they did it was very ham-handed in a sense,’ she said, adding the government hasn’t really addressed some of the other economic grievances.” CNBC reports.
Toyota Breaks Own Sales Record in China
Nikkei Asia
“Toyota Motor notched a new all-time high in Chinese auto sales in 2021, the Japanese automaker said on Friday, further underscoring how it successfully weathered the global chip shortage while many competitors were forced to cut production.”
“Toyota's new vehicle sales in China grew 8.2% to 1.94 million units. The sales volume has grown for nine consecutive years. The key driver was hybrid vehicles, which saw purchases jump 50% to 475,900 units. Hybrids made up nearly 25% of total sales, up from 17% in 2020.”
“This is the first time Toyota released specific sales figures for hybrids sold in China. The company updated its lineup of mainline models, including gasoline vehicles, as well as in improving sales promotion.”
“Access to chips has helped Toyota in the U.S. market as well. Last year it overtook GM to claim the top spot in that market for the first time, selling 2.33 million vehicles, compared with General Motors' 2.21 million.”
“While GM and Ford Motor were forced to sharply cut production due to the global chip crunch, the impact was limited at Toyota. Other Japanese automakers did not fare as well in China. Honda Motor's sales dipped 4% to 1.56 million vehicles, declining for the first time in three years.” Nikkei Asia reports.
Dubai Retains Spot As Busiest International Airport in December
The National
“Dubai International Airport in December retained its position as the world's busiest for international passengers, overtaking major hubs such as London Heathrow, as passenger traffic surged during the peak holiday travel period.”
“The monthly rankings by aviation consultancy OAG were calculated using airlines' international seat capacity and international flight frequency in December 2021, compared with the same month in 2019 before the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic.”
“Dubai held on to the top spot with 3.54 million seats, about one million more than the next busiest airport, London Heathrow, OAG said in its monthly World's Busiest Airports report.”
“Amsterdam Schiphol, Paris Charles de Gaulle and Istanbul Airport rounded off the top five busiest international airports, the data showed. Dubai International's Terminal 3 was expected to serve more than 1.6 million passengers in the second half of December during the month's peak seasonal travel period, operator Dubai Airports said last month.”
“The emirate's airport operator raised its forecast for annual passenger traffic for 2021 by two million, anticipating that traveller numbers will reach 28.7 million. Dubai Airports is projecting 57 million passengers for 2022.” Deena Kamel reports.
Fellow Traveler Alert
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“Clouds come floating into my life, no longer to carry rain or usher storm, but to add color to my sunset sky.”
― Rabindranath Tagore, Stray Birds
Thanks so very much for sharing Afshin. I am a proud fellow traveler and look forward to another year of journeying along through the "85 world."