Emerging Markets Daily - May 31
Global Economic Outlook Brightens, Netanyahu on Verge of Losing Power, West African Bloc Suspends Mali, Qatar Air 'Serious' Spat with Airbus, Singapore's Online Housing Marketplace
The Top 5 Emerging Markets Stories from Global Media - May 31
Global Outlook Brightens, OECD Sees Pre-Pandemic Level by 2022
Financial Times
“The brightening outlook for the global economy will give governments leeway to switch from blanket emergency support to more targeted measures, with a focus on investing, the OECD has said.”
“The Paris-based organisation said global output would rise 5.8 per cent this year, a significant upgrade from the forecast of 4.2 per cent made in December. Growth of 4.4 per cent the following year would bring most of the world back to pre-pandemic levels of activity, it added.”
“However, the OECD also warned that the recovery would be uneven and living standards in many developed economies will still fall well short of the levels expected before the pandemic.”
“The new forecasts suggest that in the US, thanks to its fiscal stimulus and Covid-19 vaccination programmes, economic output at the end of 2022 would be slightly higher than it had projected in November 2019. The same is true of China and, to a lesser extent, Germany. But output in many European countries, especially those reliant on tourism, will be well below pre-pandemic levels.”
“The shortfall will be even bigger in emerging markets: output in India will be almost 10 per cent below the November 2019 projection. In the longer term, the damage to the productive capacity of the economy could be worst among G7 countries particularly in the UK, where the scarring effects of the pandemic will be compounded by Brexit, the OECD said.” Delphine Strauss reports.
Geopolitics: Israeli Opposition Figures Reach Deal Aimed at Ousting Netanyahu
The Guardian
“The far-right Israeli politician Naftali Bennett and opposition leader Yair Lapid have agreed to forge a coalition government that would oust Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu from his 12 straight years in power.”
“…While further political negotiations are expected, the move by Bennett served a massive blow to Israel’s longest-serving leader, who is famed for his political wizardry and has survived repeated attempts to end his career.”
“…According to local media reports on the deal, Bennett, the 49-year-old tech millionaire who previously headed the defence and education ministries, would become prime minister for the first two years of a term, with Lapid, 57, replacing him for the final two.” Oliver Holmes reports
West African Bloc Suspends Mali over Coup, but No New Sanctions
Reuters
“West African regional bloc ECOWAS on Sunday suspended Mali's membership in response to last week's coup and said authorities must stick to a timetable for a return to democracy, but stopped short of imposing new sanctions.”
“Leaders of the 15-member Economic Community of West African States held an emergency summit in Ghana's capital Accra to agree a response to the Malian military's ouster of a president and prime minister for the second time in nine months.”
“Mali's neighbours and international powers fear the latest revolt will jeopardize a commitment to hold a presidential election next February, and undermine a regional fight against Islamist militants.” Reuters reports
Qatar Airways in “Serious” Spat with Airbus, Warning of Fall-Out With Other Airlines
Bloomberg
“Qatar Airways Chief Executive Officer Akbar Al Baker threatened to stop taking deliveries of Airbus SE jets this year because of an unspecified ‘serious’ disagreement, a warning that could hamper the planemaker’s recovery plans.”
“‘If we are not able to settle that serious issue we have with them, we will refuse to take any aircraft from them,’ the CEO said in an interview with Bloomberg TV. Falling out with Qatar Airways, Al Baker warned, will cause Airbus ‘a stress in the relationship with IAG, with LatAm, with other airlines in which we have a shareholding.’
“The subject of the spat? ‘I unfortunately cannot tell you what that issue is,’ Al Baker said. Airbus won’t say either. A spokesperson for the Blagnac, France-based company said it’s in constant talks with customers about their requirements, and that details on those discussions ‘remain confidential.’”
“Qatar Airways is among Airbus’s most important customers, particularly as the manufacturer considers competing with U.S. rival Boeing Co. by moving into marketing cargo carriers. It’s a position that has allowed Al Baker to put pressure on Airbus or lampoon the company in public, from threatening to cancel orders or delay deliveries to accusing Airbus of being incapable of building planes.”
“The airline chief previously criticized Airbus’s giant A380 jets over their inefficiency and operational cost. However, he told Bloomberg TV that was ‘water under the bridge’ and not the subject of the latest dispute. The CEO said in January only half of its 10 A380s would return to service after being grounded in 2020.” Simone Foxman reports.
Singapore's PropertyGuru to Acquire Malaysia and Thailand Rivals
Nikkei Asia
“Singapore's PropertyGuru plans to acquire rival platforms in Malaysia and Thailand in a bid to cement its position as Southeast Asia's dominant online housing marketplace.”
“The deal is also the latest to show how Southeast Asia's digital startups and internet economies have garnered global attention.”
“The real estate technology portal said on Monday it will buy all of the shares in the units of Australia's REA Group that run competing platforms iProperty.com.my and Brickz.my in Malaysia as well as thinkofliving.com and Prakard.com in Thailand.” Dylan Loh reports
What We’re Also Keeping our Eye on…
Colombia’s New Wave of Protests
Deutsche Welle
“It has been a month since Colombians began taking to the streets over tax hikes. Now, the protests have morphed into a veritable mass movement. "L", "Little Eye" and the "Skinny One," as they call themselves, are members of the "Frontline Mothers." They were among those who marched through the Colombian capital Bogota this Friday. Indeed, the women often lead the protest marches, facing down police officers and agents from the notorious Colombian National Police riot control unit (ESMAD).”
“Colombia's largely peaceful protests have developed into a mass movement, at times escalating into brutal, even deadly, street fighting. More than 40 people have died so far.”
“The protests pit many ordinary Colombians ― who've grown tired of extreme income inequality, aloof elites, rampant poverty and corruption ― against an unyielding state, intent on quashing the protest movement. In Colombia, police brutality has been all too common for the past decades.” Oliver Pieper reports