The New Map of Global Trade

In my latest Forbes column, I try to look past the tariffs noise and explore the emerging cartography of global trade. New hubs rising, new corridors growing, trade is resilient.

Years ago, I first heard a London banker sum up the future of global growth with a catchy phrase: “Shanghai, Mumbai, Dubai or Goodbye.” The message was clear: the world’s dynamism was shifting to new hubs, and if you weren’t paying attention, you’d be left behind.

That line came back to me on a recent visit to Jebel Ali port in Dubai.

Watching containers move across one of the busiest trade hubs in the world, it was impossible to believe in the so-called “end of globalization.” I saw resilience and reinvention. I also saw something I had been seeing for a couple of decades: there’s a quiet, under-the-radar world of trade that doesn’t always capture the same headlines as China-US or EU-Asia, but it’s growing more powerful by the day.

That’s what I explore in my latest Forbes column: how the map of global trade is changing. Old corridors remain vital, but new ones are rising across Asia, Africa, and Latin America. Ports once overlooked are now central, and the Global South is increasingly steering the flows of commerce, roughly 25% of global trade.

You can read the full piece here:

And here are a few excerpts below:

By Afshin Molavi

Forbes

Amid the headlines and noise of the latest tariffs from Washington and the growing fears about the state of global trade, a quiet movement to support free and open commerce is taking place in world capitals from Auckland to Abu Dhabi, and from Singapore to Santiago. In the process, a new map of global trade is emerging, new corridors are rising, and new hubs are flexing their trade muscle.

The recent announcement of the The Future of Investment and Trade (FIT) Partnership linking fourteen small and medium-sized countries across a vast geography represents one of several emerging initiatives to reinforce global trade. The initiative, led by a group of small but potent trading nations - Singapore, the United Arab Emirates, Switzerland and New Zealand - brings together countries from as far afield as Panama and Chile to Rwanda and Iceland together under one banner to support the expansion of trade.

The Trade Deals Stitching the New Map

The FIT partnership is part of a wider emerging pattern: governments across the world are quietly stitching together new trade deals and alliances to keep markets open. In March, India inked a landmark free trade pact with the European EFTA bloc, slashing tariffs on nearly all trade flows with Switzerland, Norway, Iceland, and Liechtenstein. Just months later, Indonesia and the European Union reached agreement on their own deal, nine years in the making. Mercosur — the bloc of Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, and Paraguay — has revived its long-delayed negotiations with Brussels, aiming to create one of the world’s largest free-trade areas. Meanwhile, across Asia, China and ASEAN unveiled their upgraded “FTA 3.0.”

….To understand the new map of global trade, it’s useful to follow the container ships. Inevitably, they converge on China’s giant ports — Shanghai, Ningbo, Shenzhen — but also on Jebel Ali in Dubai, the vital hub between Asia, Africa, and Europe. India is also staking a claim on the trade map. Mundra, the country’s largest port, has become a key gateway for India’s container traffic and continues to expand its reach. Further south, the newly opened Vizhinjam port near Kerala boasts world-class deep water and a location just ten nautical miles from the busy east–west shipping lane.

Jebel Ali anchors flows between three continents and its parent company, DP World, operates terminals, ports and logistics facilities across more than 80 countries, handling some 10% of world trade. DP World Chairman Sultan Bin Sulayem recently pushed back against the prevailing trade gloom in a CNN interview, noting: “We see growth in our business around the world.” He pointed to rising volumes not only in the Middle East but also across Africa, India, Brazil, Latin America, Indonesia, and the Far East.

As always, I appreciate your thoughts and ideas.

Cheers,

Afshin

“Be yourself; everyone else is already taken.”

―Oscar Wilde